Alternative Premier League table after 37 games, based on expected goals

Alternative Premier League table after 37 games, based on expected goals
A relentless Premier League season will com to an end next Sunday – not that we want it to.Sadly, the current campaign is only 38 games long because we’d love to see a few more matches of Liverpool and Manchester City slugging it out for title glory.Liverpool star Jordan Henderson celebrates their win over Newcastle but it might not be enough.6
Liverpool star Jordan Henderson celebrates their win over Newcastle but it might not be enough.
Even the top four race has got some legs left, despite Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United all flopping in recent matches.The Blues have got it sewn up and know they will play in the Champions League next season, while Spurs will join them barring a defeat to Everton resulting in an eight-goal swing and an emphatic win for Unai Emery’s Gunners against Burnley.The final relegation spot was decided on Saturday when Cardiff City lost to Crystal Palace but everyone can appreciate their valiant efforts and to remain in with a chance of staying up for so long is credit to the players and their manager Neil Warnock. But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’?Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Games played – 37Real points = 15 | Expected points = 28.3719. Fulham – Real position = 19Games played – 37Real points = 26 | Expected points = 33.2618. Brighton – Real position = 17Games played – 37Real points = 36 | Expected points = 35.85Glenn Murray’s penalty ensured Brighton got a share the spoils against Arsenal6
Glenn Murray’s penalty ensured Brighton got a share the spoils against Arsenal
17. Cardiff – Real position = 18Games played – 37Real points = 31 | Expected points = 36.1816. Newcastle – Real position = 14Games played – 37Real points = 42 | Expected points = 36.7314. Burnley – Real position = 15Games played – 37Real points = 40 | Expected points = 41.35Burnley boss Sean Dyche will be hoping to beat Arsenal on Sunday6
Burnley boss Sean Dyche will be hoping to beat Arsenal on Sunday
15. West Ham – Real position = 11Games played – 37Real points = 49 | Expected points = 41.5713. Southampton – Real position = 16Games played – 37Real points = 38 | Expected points = 43.7012. Watford – Real position = 10Games played – 37Real points = 50 | Expected points = 45.34

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11. Crystal Palace – Real position = 12Games played – 37Real points = 46 | Expected points = 49.8810. Bournemouth – Real position = 13Games played – 37Real points = 45 | Expected points = 50.749. Everton – Real position = 8Games played – 37Real points = 53 | Expected points = 53.19The Everton players celebrate a goal from Seamus Coleman6
The Everton players celebrate a goal from Seamus Coleman
8. Leicester – Real position = 9Games played – 37Real points = 51 | Expected points = 55.737. Arsenal – Real position = 5Games played – 37Real points = 67 | Expected points = 56.816. Wolves – Real position = 7Games played – 37Real points = 57 | Expected points = 59.175. Manchester United – Real position = 6Games played – 37Real points = 66 | Expected points = 60.39Scott McTominay’s opened the scoring for Manchester United before Huddersfield equalised on Sunday6
Scott McTominay’s opened the scoring for Manchester United before Huddersfield equalised on Sunday
4. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 3Games played – 37Real points = 70 | Expected points = 61.003. Chelsea – Real position = 4Games played – 37Real points = 71 | Expected points = 69.232. Liverpool – Real position = 2Games played – 37Real points = 94 | Expected points = 81.441. Manchester City – Real position = 1Games played – 37Real points = 95 | Expected points = 88.14Kompany struck an incredible shot from distance to seal Man City a vital victory6
Kompany struck an incredible shot from distance to seal Man City a vital victory



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But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'? Here at talkSPORT.com we're always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats. Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match. Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
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Manchester City kept the pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool by beating West Ham 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium. The midweek matches also saw Chelsea, who dropped Kepa Arrizabalaga following his antics during the Carabao Cup final, beat Tottenham, while Arsenal and Manchester United claimed victories.

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The 25-year-old played the full 90 minutes against former club Juventus on Wednesday as Jose Mourinho’s men came back to secure a stunning 2-1 win in the Champions League.However, Pogba was conspicuous by his absence from United’s training session on Friday – an unneeded injury scare ahead of Sunday’s derby at the Etihad Stadium, where he netted a brace in April’s 3-2 victory.The Red Devils will be hoping that what is being described as a “little injury” will not keep the World Cup winner out against City.Pogba may be out of the Red Devils’ derby clash on Sunday.2
Pogba may be out of the Red Devils’ derby clash on Sunday.
Press Association Sport report Pogba was at the Aon Training Complex on Friday but instead did indoor work rather than taking to the training pitch as a result of the issue.Romelu Lukaku is already a doubt for the derby, having missed the trips to Bournemouth and Juventus with a hamstring injury sustained last Friday. The striker trained with the group this Friday, as did Alexis Sanchez, who took a blow in Turin.Mourinho said ahead of the session: “Lukaku is training with the team this morning.“We have of course one more session tomorrow, but if the answer is positive, he’s ready.“But in this moment, I can only say he trains with the team. I don’t know his answer.”

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The former Everton boss got his dream job when he was hand-picked by Sir Alex Ferguson to succeed him at Old Trafford.After guiding the club to a record 20th top-division title, Fergie even urged fans to stick by their new manager in an impassioned speech on the Old Trafford pitch.But it did not go to plan for Moyes, who was unceremoniously forced out of the door just nine months later.The 57-year-old joined fellow Scots Alan Brazil and Ally McCoist to look back on his brief United career on Thursdays Sports Breakfast show.In a game of First and Lasts, Moyes was asked about the last time he cried.And he couldnt quite disguise the disappointment in his voice when he answered: Oh, I think probably when I lost my job at Manchester United.”

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Moyes went on to claim the club have failed to progress since he left Old Trafford five years ago.United have had three permanent managers in the four seasons since his departure, and will end this season without a trophy.“I feel that since I took over to where they are just now, I dont think theres an awful lot of difference,” he said.Manchester United are sixth in the Premier League under current manager Ole Gunnar SolskjaerGetty2
Manchester United are sixth in the Premier League under current manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
When I took over it was needing a change and needing a turnaround of players, and that was all going to take time.I feel like in the four years or so since I was managing there, its probably not moved on much more.Its quite similar, theyre still saying there needs to be changes and has to be things done.That time since I felt hasnt been used awfully well.

Listen to a clip of David Moyes on talkSPORT above





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